News and Insights

A view from the North on travel South 

October 29, 2026

As a Canadian tourism marketer based in Vancouver who works closely with colleagues and partners in the U.S. every day, I have watched the shift in cross-border travel over the past year with equal parts fascination and frustration. 

Historically, travel to our southern neighbor has been a no-brainer for Canadians. We headed to Disney World for family vacations, NYC for long weekends, Vegas for big celebrations, or across the border for quick shopping runs. It was (and remains) easy, close and familiar. Lately, though, avoiding travel to the U.S. has become a widespread movement in Canada. While it continues to dominate our headlines, many international colleagues still ask what is driving it. 

What happened? Emotion vs. economics

In early 2025, standard travel motivators – convenience, proximity and easy entertainment – collided with trade tension, political rhetoric and a soft Canadian dollar. 

Despite popular belief, currency isn’t the primary dealbreaker. The Canadian dollar has been low relative to the USD for years without scaring off travelers. It’s not tariffs, either, although increased costs are affecting disposable income that may have otherwise supported vacations. Instead, political comments, especially those belittling Canadian sovereignty, hit a raw nerve. As a smaller nation by population that often lives in the shadow of its neighbor, perceived threats to cultural identity and sovereignty triggered an emotional wave from Canadians that will not be easy to overcome through rational logic. 

Indeed, recent sentiment tracking from Longwoods International reveals that 57% of Canadian travelers say current U.S. policies or political statements make them less likely to visit over the next 12 months, with a quarter of them eyeing other international destinations, and 13% planning to cancel their trips. Discount offers, special packages, and “You’re Welcome Here” campaigns from U.S. organizations trying to recover the business have barely nudged the needle.  

The numbers behind the shift

The impact on the U.S. travel sector has been huge: 

• The Baseline: According to data from the U.S. Department of Commerce and Statistics Canada, before 2025, Canadians were by far the largest group of international visitors to the U.S., making up 28% of all 72.4 million inbound travelers in 2024 and spending $20.5 billion USD.

• The Downturn: Full-year travel spending in the U.S. dropped $4.5 billion USD in 2025. By September 2026, drive-market car trips were down 31.1% compared to pre-boycott levels in September 2024, while air travel sat 18.7% below baseline. Border towns, sunbelt spots such as Florida and Arizona, and major metro hubs have taken the hit hardest.

• An analysis of cell phone activity data released by the University of Toronto School of Cities earlier this year found a 42% year-over-year median decline in Canadian visits to U.S. metropolitan areas. These major declines in Canadian visitors weren’t just found in cities known for tourism, such as Orlando and Las Vegas – which would signify a downturn in tourism – but also in major industrial and financial hubs such as Dallas and Grand Rapids, Michigan. While these areas attract some tourism, they also have significant connections to Canadian business, which amplifies the implications far beyond leisure travel. 

Canadians are still traveling

The slowdown in Canadian travel is clearly not just a budget issue: What the U.S. has lost, other markets have gained. StatCan reports that the 23.5% drop in stateside travel (7.1 million fewer visits compared to 2024) was nearly fully offset by gains in domestic and overseas tourism. 

Domestic visits grew 1.5% (+5.0 million), and overseas travel jumped 10.2% (+1.3 million visits). This shift is even more pronounced in spending: while Canadian leisure expenditures in the U.S. fell by $2.2 billion CAD, overseas leisure spending climbed by $3.6 billion CAD. Ultimately, stronger domestic and international demand successfully countered the downturn in U.S. travel. 

What can U.S. tourism brands do?

Canadians will come back over time. The two nations share too much history, geography, and culture for a shift like this to stay permanent. Plus, Canadians genuinely like Americans! But emotional hesitation takes patience and strategic empathy to heal: For conversations with consumers, travel trade or media, consider this approach: 

1. Keep the connection without hard selling: Stay present in the market without forcing immediate bookings. Brands (and people) that maintain warm, consistent relationships will recover fastest when sentiment turns. 
2. Focus on community and shared values: Frame messaging around local hospitality, regional food, natural spaces and human connections rather than national broad strokes. 
3. Shift from urgency to soft awareness: Reallocate a higher-proportion of performance ad dollars (“Book Now”) toward low-pressure, top-of-funnel brand storytelling until the mood lightens. 

Early signs of recovery 

We’re starting to see boycott fatigue. StatCan data shows Canadian return trips from the U.S. edged up 6.8% year-over-year to 1.9 million trips in September, with it being the sixth consecutive month of growth. While overall volumes are still well below 2024 levels, the floor is beginning to stabilize. Still, there is a stigma associated with going to the U.S. According to CNN, some Canadians who are traveling to the U.S. are staying off social media, with one reason being negative judgement from others. 

As emotional barriers continue to soften, the destinations and tourism brands that kept communications respectful, thoughtful and authentic will be the ones Canadian travelers choose first.