News and Insights

MEDIA PULSE: May 2025

May 23, 2025

This month’s Media Pulse is about recalibration. CPMs are finally cooling. AI’s role in media strategy is getting more tactical. And authenticity — whatever that means anymore — is under the microscope. AI is transforming both the how and the what of media. But the future belongs to those who can balance algorithmic precision with human connection.

#1 AI’s next phase in predictive media planning

AI isn’t just changing how we optimize — it’s starting to shape how we plan and buy. We’re officially entering the era of predictive media strategy.

Platforms like Meta Advantage+ and Google’s Performance Max are already baking in prediction at scale. But behind the scenes, more brands are training their own AI models — built on historical media, sales, and behavioral data — to get ahead of audience behavior before campaigns even launch.

According to Adobe’s 2025 AI and Digital Trends report, 65% of senior leaders say AI and predictive analytics are their no. 1 growth lever this year. And The Wall Street Journal predicts that AI will dominate ad buying far sooner than most marketers are ready for.

💓 The Pulse

• Pre-test everything: Want to know how a campaign might perform before spending a dollar? Predictive AI makes it possible.
• Plan like a trader: Budgets can now flex in real time based on weather, sentiment, or macro trends.
• Smarter segments, faster: AI finds behavioral nuances — not just demos — so you can reach people based on likelihood, not assumption.

OUR TAKE

AI isn’t here to replace human planning — it’s here to make it sharper. Let it do the heavy lifting on forecasting and segmentation, but keep the strategy human. The best plans still need intuition and storytelling to land.

#2 The great CPM reset

CPMs are finally cooling (now if only housing prices would follow suit …). After years of relentless climbs with no end in sight, we’re finally seeing a correction — and it’s significant.

Meta CPMs are down 36% year over year. TikTok’s CPMs? Down 80% compared to last year. Good news, right? Sometimes. Just because media is cheaper doesn’t mean it’s working harder. Use this as a strategic opportunity to revisit objectives and how your campaigns are structured. Baby brand Lalo did exactly that.

Be like Lalo: Switch things up. And keep your eyes on attention metrics, on top of actual revenue and business impact. (Check out November’s Media Pulse for a deeper dive into attention measurement if you’re curious!)

💓 The Pulse

• Re-allocate with purpose: Use this current landscape to test new platforms or audience segments that were previously cost-prohibitive.
• Seize the messaging moment: A lower CPM means more impressions, so make sure your messaging is strong.
• Cheap doesn’t mean effective: A $4 CPM is meaningless if it doesn’t drive action (or if over 65% of the new ads you invested in are buried…).

OUR TAKE

This isn’t a moment to focus on pure efficiency. It’s about doing more with less — and getting better outcomes while you’re at it. Rebalance your mix. Push for more from partners and platforms. And use this moment as a rare opportunity to buy smarter.

#3 The authenticity paradox: AI, ads and what’s ‘Real’?

Authenticity used to mean human. Now? It’s complicated.

AI is getting eerily good at crafting content that feels personal, emotional — even raw. Urban Volt saw a 47% CTR lift using AI-generated copy. Columbia Business School found that AI ad images can outperform human ones, as long as they don’t look AI-made. Welcome to synthetic authenticity: content that’s fake, but connects anyway.

But here’s the rub: 72% of people say AI content should be labeled. Trouble is, when they know it’s synthetic, trust drops. That’s the AI trust tax: Disclose it, and you risk a backlash unless the output feels exceptional.

Soon, disclosure won’t be optional. The EU’s AI Act will require synthetic content and deepfakes to be clearly labeled by 2026. Fail to disclose, and you risk not just losing trust but facing potential legal penalties.

Ready for the next layer of crazy? Lo-fi content — handheld, off-script, creator-led — is outperforming the polish. User Generated Content is trusted 2.4x more than branded ads, and 73% receive more positive comments (on average). Why? Because imperfection now carries value. It signals truth. Call it the imperfection premium — and AI hasn’t cracked it yet.

💓 The Pulse

• Fake can feel real: AI works when it connects emotionally, not when it tries too hard to fool people.
• Disclosure dilemma: Transparency is expected, but if the AI output underdelivers, brands risk an authenticity penalty.
• Lo-fi is high impact: Creator content feels authentic … because it is. Flawed, handheld and human drives stronger engagement and feels believable precisely because it isn’t perfect.

OUR TAKE

The authenticity paradox isn’t a creative problem — it’s a strategic one. Smart brands won’t pick between AI and humans — they’ll orchestrate them. Use AI to test, scale and adapt. Let creators bring the community trust. And keep humans in the loop for emotional nuance, narrative clarity and brand safety.

There’s more coming soon: agentic AI that manages whole campaigns, authenticity-verification tools for digital proof of origin, and a premium on human-crafted storytelling as audiences tire of synthetic saturation.

The future of authenticity is layered, not binary. And the marketers who get that — who can blend machine speed with human substance — will win.

About the authors
Ashley Blais co-leads FINN Paid Media, our global team of experts who live and breathe today’s fast-paced and fast-changing media landscape. The team delivers a full suite of services, including omnichannel planning and buying, performance media strategy and management, and comprehensive measurement, resulting in award-winning campaigns that drive client success. Daniel Cupidi, as paid media supervisor, oversees campaign performance, strategic planning and execution within the team.